PENGARUH HARGA MINYAK CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) DAN HARGA EMAS LOGAM MULIA TERHADAP ANGGARAN NEGARA PERIODE 2020-2025

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices and gold prices on the Indonesian State Budget for the 2020-2025 period, both partially and simultaneously. As a country rich in natural resources, Indonesia heavily relies on the commodity sector, particularly CPO and gold, which significantly contribute to state revenues through export duties, export taxes, royalties, and Non-Tax State Revenues (PNBP). Fluctuations in the prices of these global commodities potentially affect fiscal stability and the State Budget structure. The research method used is a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis. The data used are secondary monthly time series data with 72 observations (January 2020 to December 2025) obtained from the Ministry of Finance, Central Statistics Agency, World Bank, and PT Aneka Tambang Tbk. Data analysis includes descriptive statistical tests, classical assumption tests (normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation), and hypothesis testing (t-test and F-test) using SPSS version 27. The research results show that partially, CPO prices have a negative and significant effect on the State Budget (t-count -2.378 < t-table -1.994; sig. 0.020 < 0.05), while gold prices do not have a significant effect on the State Budget (t-count 1.064 < t-table 1.994; sig. 0.291 > 0.05). Simultaneously, both independent variables have a significant effect on the State Budget (F-count 6.869 > F-table 3.13; sig. 0.002 < 0.05) with a coefficient of determination of 21.8%. The conclusion of this study is that CPO prices and gold prices jointly influence the State Budget, but partially only CPO prices have a significant effect. The government is advised to pay attention to global commodity price fluctuations in formulating fiscal policies and to diversify state revenue sources to reduce dependence on the commodity sector.