PENGARUH NILAI EKSPOR DAN KURS DOLLAR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI NASIONAL PERIODE 2016-2025

Abstract

Economic growth is a crucial indicator of a nation's development success; however, Indonesia's economic growth has exhibited volatility over the past decade, ranging from a contraction of -5.32% in the second quarter of 2020 to a recovery of 7.08% in the second quarter of 2021. This study employs an associative-causal research design with a quantitative approach. It utilizes quarterly secondary time-series data from 2016 to 2025, obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI), comprising 40 quarterly observations selected via purposive sampling. Data analysis includes descriptive statistics, classical assumption tests (normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation), multiple linear regression analysis, and hypothesis testing (t-test and F-test) using SPSS version 25. The results indicate that, individually (partially), export value does not significantly affect national economic growth (t-count 0.757 < t-table 2.032; sig. 0.455 > 0.05), nor does the dollar exchange rate (t-count 1.198 < t-table 2.032; sig. 0.240 > 0.05). Simultaneously, the two independent variables do not significantly influence national economic growth (F-count 0.687 < F-table 3.28; sig. 0.606 > 0.05), with a coefficient of determination of only 8.1%. The study concludes that neither export value nor the dollar exchange rate-whether analyzed individually or simultaneously-has a significant impact on Indonesia's national economic growth during the 2016-2025 period. The government and policymakers are advised not to rely solely on export values ??and exchange rate movements when formulating growth-promoting policies, but also to consider other macroeconomic variables such as household consumption, investment, and government spending.